In the first month of the hottest new year, heavy

2022-08-09
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In the first month of the year, the heavy truck industry was "red and purple"

in the first month of the year, the heavy truck industry was "red and purple"

China Construction machinery information

Guide: in 2010 and early 2011, most of the heavy truck industry held a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the trend of the industry this year. 5: the price was cheap, and even some pessimistic arguments were mixed in. The basis of caution and pessimism is that the heavy truck industry is closely related to the macro economy, and the troika driving the economy is in 2

at the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011, most of the heavy truck industry were cautious and optimistic about the trend of the industry this year, and even some pessimistic views were mixed

the basis of caution and pessimism is that the heavy truck industry is closely related to the macro economy, and the driving speed of the troika driving the economy in 2011 may be the decline in the characteristics and working conditions of the manhole cover pressure testing machine. Some analysts pointed out that as far as China's economy is concerned, the economic boom in 2011 will fall slightly. The growth rate of investment is still fast, but the growth rate has dropped. It is estimated that China's fixed asset investment will increase by about 20% in 2011, lower than the growth rate of the previous year. The expansion of consumption continues to bear fruit, and consumption continues to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the total retail sales of consumer goods in China will actually increase by about 13% in 2011, down 2 percentage points from the previous year. The recovery of the external demand market was slow, and the export growth fell significantly. It is expected that the import and export will increase by about 16% and the import will increase by about 18% in 2011, and the trade surplus will decrease compared with the previous year. Due to the sluggish driving of the troika of investment, consumption and export, some insiders speculated that the growth rate of the heavy truck industry slowed down or fell sharply

when predicting the trend of heavy trucks in 2011 at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, insiders gave 10 specific reasons for the downturn:

1 The national economic slowdown will reduce the sales of heavy trucks. Heavy truck sales are highly related to GDP. The measures taken by the state to control inflation will reduce the speed of economic development and have a direct impact on the heavy truck market

2. The change of national monetary policy has led to the reduction of credit scale. The reduction of credit line will lead to the reduction of investment, the reduction of dealers' acceptance bill line, and the reduction of the support line for loan to buy cars. At the dealer conference of an enterprise, a dealer said publicly that it was difficult to handle bank acceptance bills

3. This year, the focus of the country's economic policy is to protect the people's livelihood rather than engage in construction. A large amount of fiscal expenditure will shift from stimulating investment to livelihood projects. In December, 2010, the central economic work conference pointed out that during the "12th Five Year Plan" period, we should "accelerate the formation of a new situation in which consumption, investment and export coordinate to drive economic growth", which is the first time that "consumption" ranks first. Before that, the central government needs to optimize the structure of the spring testing machine. When referring to these three, the "investment" ranks first, the "export" ranks second, and the "consumption" ranks third. The change in the order of these three also shows the direction of the country's economic policy this year

4. Investment in fixed assets slowed down

5. Heavy trucks are updated periodically. The peak of heavy truck purchase in recent years will bring another peak of renewal in twoorthree years. After the peak of renewal in 2010, it will usher in the trough of renewal in 2011

6. The improvement of railway freight transport capacity has squeezed the road transport market. Improve production efficiency. The new train diagram will be implemented from 0:00 on January 11, 2011, and the national railway freight capacity will increase by 12.3%. The improvement of freight capacity will effectively ensure the transportation of key materials such as coal, oil, wood, steel and so on, which are related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Among them, more than 100 million tons of coal will be transported in the "three West" region alone. The improvement of freight capacity will certainly suppress the demand for heavy trucks

7. Freight rates fell and oil prices rose. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the freight rate has begun to fall, and the ton kilometer is only a little more than 30 cents. Relative to the rising oil price, the falling freight rate will greatly reduce the profit of highway transportation. General freight rates fall, and the demand for heavy trucks will fall in the future

8. The soaring factor of last year has subsided. In 2010, the demand for heavy trucks in 2011 was overdrawn. Due to the cancellation of road maintenance fees, many users' demand for vehicles increased significantly in the first two years of last year; The implementation of weight charging has also led to many transportation units' original vehicles not making money, and these enterprises have replaced profitable models; Overloading is unsustainable. Goods that could be pulled out by one car in the past now need more cars, which also leads to an increase in the demand for heavy trucks. The pull of these factors on demand will gradually fade this year. Therefore, compared with 2010, many positive factors promoting heavy truck sales in 2011 are difficult to sustain

9. Transportation efficiency continues to improve. The number of heavy trucks/total freight volume in China is far higher than the world average, and far more far away than that in developed countries. With the improvement of the efficiency of China's logistics industry, it is bound to reduce the demand for heavy trucks in the actual turnover of goods

10. The promotion of drop and hang transportation mode. Some people say that 2011 will be the first year of suspension. Drop and hitch transportation will be vigorously promoted in 2011, which will increase the demand for trailers and reduce the demand for tractors

10 reasons are justified, which represents the views of most market people at that time. However, in January this year, the sales data of some heavy truck enterprises (which can represent the heavy truck industry to a certain extent) were "red" and surprising

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